Polymarket Best Chinese AI Company end of November odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Xiaomi, at 56%. The market settles by Nov 30, 2026, and $902 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 56¢ reads as a 56% chance. Polymarket US and Kalshi list it too, and we compare the prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket US and Kalshi: 5 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xiaomi compare | 56% | 56¢ | $342 | Trade |
| Alibaba compare | 35% | 35¢ | $80 | Trade |
| Z.ai compare | 5% | 5¢ | $117 | Trade |
| Tencent | 4% | 4¢ | $98 | Trade |
| Moonshot compare | 2% | 2¢ | $47 | Trade |
| MiniMax | 2% | 2¢ | $47 | Trade |
| Baidu | 1% | 1¢ | $47 | Trade |
| DeepSeek compare | 1% | 1¢ | $67 | Trade |
| ByteDance | 1% | 1¢ | $57 | Trade |
| StepFun | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Show 1 more outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meituan | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 56¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on each venue: Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 56¢ | 44¢ | 1.0¢ | $342 | $7K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 54¢cheapest to buy | 47¢ | 1.7–2.4¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 35¢ | 65¢ | 0.9¢ | $80 | $6K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 33¢cheapest to buy | 68¢ | 1.5–2.1¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 5¢cheapest to buy | 95¢ | 0.2¢ | $117 | $6K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 7¢ | 94¢ | 0.4–0.6¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 1¢ | 99¢ | <0.1¢ | $67 | $6K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 2¢ | 99¢ | 0.1¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 3¢ | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 2¢ | 98¢ | 0.1¢ | $47 | $7K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 2¢ | 99¢ | 0.1¢ | – | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Scheduled resolution: Nov 30, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 56¢ for Xiaomi right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
More tech & science markets
GPT Astra 6.1+ released
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$37K in 24h on Polymarket
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · resolves Nov 30, 2026
$27K in 24h on Polymarket
GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...
Polymarket · Polymarket US · resolves Nov 30, 2026
$20K in 24h on Polymarket
Next Gemini Carbon (4.1+) released on...
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$17K in 24h on Polymarket
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2027
$17K in 24h on Polymarket
Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut
Polymarket · resolves Jun 30, 2027
$15K in 24h on Polymarket
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Best Chinese AI Company end of November?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Xiaomi, at 56%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket US and Kalshi. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 5 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.