Kalshi US-Iran nuclear deal odds
On Kalshi, Yes trades at 14%. The market settles by Jan 1, 2027, and $20K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 14¢ reads as a 14% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
$50 bonusNew to Kalshi? Trade $20, get a $50 bonus through our link. US only, 18+. Offer terms
Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: 3 questions compared ↓
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 35% | 35¢ | $492 | Trade |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 20% | 20¢ | $858 | Trade |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 16% | 16¢ | $2 | Trade |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 compare | 14% | 14¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 compare | 8% | 8¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 compare | 3% | 3¢ | $16K | Trade |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 37% | 37¢ | $24 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 35¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 13¢cheapest to buy | 87¢ | free | $23K | $228K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 14¢ | 86¢ | 0.8¢ | $1K | – | Trade → |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 9¢ | 91¢ | free | $302 | $39K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 8¢cheapest to buy | 92¢ | 0.5¢ | $1K | – | Trade → |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 3¢ | 97¢ | free | $18K | $57K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 3¢ | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | $16K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jan 1, 2027.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Our Kalshi review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 35¢ for Before Jan 1, 2028 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
$50 bonusNew to Kalshi? Trade $20, get a $50 bonus through our link. US only, 18+. Offer terms
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
More politics markets
Brazil Presidential election
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Oct 25, 2026
$5.8M in 24h, both venues
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · resolves Nov 3, 2026
$774K in 24h on Polymarket
What will Trump say this week?
Kalshi · resolves Oct 5, 2026
$711K in 24h on Kalshi
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Oct 27, 2026
$667K in 24h on Polymarket
Next French Presidential Election
Polymarket · resolves Apr 18, 2027
$550K in 24h on Polymarket
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power
Kalshi · resolves Feb 1, 2027
$540K in 24h on Kalshi
Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on US-Iran nuclear deal?
On Kalshi, Yes trades at 14%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. The 3 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.