Polymarket US US-Iran Nuclear Deal odds
On Polymarket US, the busiest line, By March 31, 2027, is at 19%. The market settles by Mar 31, 2027. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 19¢ reads as a 19% chance. Polymarket and Kalshi list it too, and we compare the prices below.
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Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Polymarket US · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket and Kalshi: 2 questions compared ↓
Polymarket US odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket US. A Yes contract at 19¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket US vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on each venue: Polymarket US, Polymarket and Kalshi. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 8¢ | 93¢ | free | $5K | $188K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | $7K | – | Trade → |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 1¢cheapest to buy | 99¢ | free | $2K | $55K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 3¢ | 98¢ | 0.2¢ | $47K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket US's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The contract is “US-Iran Nuclear Deal?: By March 31, 2027”. A Yes contract pays $1 if the answer is yes, and nothing if not. Polymarket US publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Mar 31, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket US
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket US account. It takes US residents only; outside the US, Polymarket is the international exchange. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 19¢ for By March 31, 2027 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket US's fees apply to each trade.
$25 bonusNew to Polymarket US? Deposit $10, get a $25 bonus through our link. US only, 18+.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket US odds on US-Iran Nuclear Deal?
On Polymarket US, the busiest line, By March 31, 2027, is at 19%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket US's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket and Kalshi too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket and Kalshi. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket US odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket US?
A taker fee on each contract of 0.0695 to 0.095 × price × (1 − price), largest near 50¢. Your 30-day volume sets the rate, and resting (maker) orders pay nothing. Polymarket US's fees has the detail.