Polymarket US 2028 US Presidential Election odds
On Polymarket US, the favourite is JD Vance, at 21%. That is down 1 point over the past week. The market settles by Nov 7, 2028. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 21¢ reads as a 21% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Polymarket US · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: 4 questions compared ↓
Polymarket US odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 21% | 21¢ | – | Trade |
| Gavin Newsom | 14% | 14¢ | – | Trade |
| Marco Rubio | 13% | 13¢ | – | Trade |
| Jon Ossoff compare | 11% | 11¢ | – | Trade |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 10% | 10¢ | – | Trade |
| Pete Buttigieg | 4% | 4¢ | – | Trade |
| James Talarico compare | 4% | 4¢ | – | Trade |
| Kamala Harris | 4% | 4¢ | – | Trade |
| Andy Beshear compare | 4% | 4¢ | – | Trade |
| Josh Shapiro | 4% | 4¢ | – | Trade |
Show 2 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket US. A Yes contract at 21¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket US vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 9¢cheapest to buy | 91¢ | free | $12K | $314K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 11¢ | 90¢ | 0.7¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | free | $483 | $252K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 4¢ | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | free | $8K | $370K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 4¢ | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 1¢cheapest to buy | 99¢ | free | $492 | $969K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 2¢ | 99¢ | 0.1¢ | – | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket US's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The contract is “2028 US Presidential Election Winner: JD Vance”. Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Polymarket US publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Nov 7, 2028.
How to trade this market on Polymarket US
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket US account. It takes US residents only; outside the US, Polymarket is the international exchange. Is Polymarket legit? Our review covers safety, sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 21¢ for JD Vance right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket US's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket US odds on 2028 US Presidential Election?
On Polymarket US, the favourite is JD Vance, at 21%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket US's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. The 4 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket US odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket US?
A taker fee on each contract of 0.0695 × price × (1 − price), largest near 50¢; resting (maker) orders pay nothing. Polymarket US's fees has the detail.