Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Kalshi odds
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Pete Hegseth, is at 46%. The market settles by Jan 7, 2027, and $443K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 46¢ reads as a 46% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
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Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: 4 questions compared ↓
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 46% | 46¢ | $103K | Trade |
| Marco Rubio | 16% | 16¢ | $31K | Trade |
| Kash Patel compare | 25% | 25¢ | $8K | Trade |
| Kevin Hassett | 19% | 19¢ | $7K | Trade |
| John Ratcliffe compare | 15% | 15¢ | $6K | Trade |
| Tom Homan compare | 13% | 13¢ | $6K | Trade |
| Mike Waltz | 13% | 13¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 14% | 14¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Amy Gleason | 33% | 33¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Linda McMahon | 18% | 18¢ | $3K | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Witkoff | 13% | 13¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Brooke Rollins | 15% | 15¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Howard Lutnick | 24% | 24¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Kelly Loeffler | 13% | 13¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Sergio Gor | 22% | 22¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Stanley Woodward | 30% | 30¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Mike Huckabee | 13% | 13¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Will Scharf | 38% | 38¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Todd Blanche | 12% | 12¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Steven Cheung | 19% | 19¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Scott Bessent compare | 8% | 8¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Christopher Landau | 26% | 26¢ | $955 | Trade |
| Bill Pulte | 13% | 13¢ | $918 | Trade |
| Chris Wright | 15% | 15¢ | $817 | Trade |
| Jamieson Greer | 13% | 13¢ | $803 | Trade |
| Russell Vought | 8% | 8¢ | $774 | Trade |
| Joe Gebbia | 13% | 13¢ | $694 | Trade |
| Trent McCotter | 36% | 36¢ | $479 | Trade |
| Brendan Carr | 5% | 5¢ | $424 | Trade |
| Dan Caine | 22% | 22¢ | $418 | Trade |
| Doug Collins | 21% | 21¢ | $414 | Trade |
| Lee Zeldin | 8% | 8¢ | $404 | Trade |
| Mehmet Oz | 14% | 14¢ | $256 | Trade |
| Tilman Fertitta | 8% | 8¢ | $256 | Trade |
| Sean Duffy | 10% | 10¢ | $247 | Trade |
| Brad Cooper | 20% | 20¢ | $169 | Trade |
| Rodney Scott | 11% | 11¢ | $144 | Trade |
| Scott Turner | 12% | 12¢ | $136 | Trade |
| Peter Navarro | 18% | 18¢ | $90 | Trade |
| Doug Burgum | 15% | 15¢ | $52 | Trade |
1 more outcomes are priced on Kalshi: the full board on Kalshi (opens in a new tab).
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 46¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 22¢cheapest to buy | 79¢ | 0.7¢ | $1K | $20K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 25¢ | 76¢ | 1.3¢ | $8K | – | Trade → |
Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 11¢cheapest to buy | 90¢ | 0.4¢ | $3K | $19K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 15¢ | 85¢ | 0.9¢ | $6K | – | Trade → |
Will Tom Homan leave the Trump administration before 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 9¢cheapest to buy | 92¢ | 0.3¢ | $1K | $20K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 13¢ | 88¢ | 0.8¢ | $6K | – | Trade → |
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 7¢cheapest to buy | 93¢ | 0.3¢ | $1K | $29K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 8¢ | 92¢ | 0.5¢ | $1K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jan 7, 2027.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Our Kalshi review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 46¢ for Pete Hegseth right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on “Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?”?
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Pete Hegseth, is at 46%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. The 4 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.